As the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end on Saturday, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) say it will be remembered as a “hyperactive” season that achieved well above-average levels even though it fell short of the ambitious predictions for record-breaking activity made in the spring.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a metric that takes into consideration the intensity and duration of tropical storms and/or hurricanes in the basin, is what gives the area the “hyperactive” label.
The 2024 season ended with an ACE rating of 162, which was 23% above average and beyond the “hyperactive” criterion of 159.6 but still below the CSU early projection of 210, which was raised to 230 later in the season.
In their July 9 report, CSU forecasters also projected 23 named storms for this season, with a brief forecast increase to 25 named storms. Instead, the season produced 18 named storms, which was above the normal of 14–15 but below the forecast.
This season, CSU did forecast 11–12 hurricanes, which matched the 11 that were recorded.
Accuracy of seasonal forecasts was impacted by an unexpected midseason slump
The forecast was aggressive due to a number of factors. The Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic all saw water temperatures that were at or close to record warm. Between August and October, wind shear was weak and reached its lowest recorded levels, according to CSU.
With Hurricane Beryl setting records for the earliest Category 5 storm ever recorded and 10 named storms between September 9 and October 31—three more in November—the front and back edges of the season were extremely active.
According to NOAA, Leslie, Milton, and Kirk were the first three hurricanes to be active in the Atlantic Basin following September. Another record was the seven hurricanes that have formed since September 25.
However, from late August until late September—typically one of the busiest times of the season—there was an unanticipated slowdown of weeks.
Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, and Milton were among the five hurricanes that made landfall in the United States.
Within two weeks, only the last two reached Florida, causing extensive destruction throughout the state and into the Southeast, killing more than 250 people and causing an estimated $200 billion in damage.
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Unprecedented tropical activity is still prevalent
- The Atlantic Basin’s 11 storms tied for fifth place in terms of the season’s total number of hurricanes.
- After the six in 1886, 1985, and 2020, the five hurricanes that made landfall in the United States tied with those in 1893, 2004, and 2005 for the second-most landfalls in a season.
- Since September 26, there have been four major hurricanes in the Atlantic, which is the second-highest number during that time frame after the five that developed in 2020.
- The 11th “hyperactive” season since the satellite era began in 1966 is represented by the 2024 ACE value of 162. Only surpassed by 1878’s ACE of 109, the 100 ACE created since Sept. 24 was the second most since then.
- Hurricanes In October, Kirk and Leslie broke records for the hurricane’s easternmost creation.
- Hurricane Beryl broke records for the earliest Category 5 storm, the fiercest hurricane before August with a peak wind speed of 165 mph, and the quickest rapid development before July (63 mph in 24 hours).
- Hurricane Milton’s minimal central pressure of 897 mb was the lowest for a hurricane since Wilma in 2005, and its maximum wind speed of 180 mph was the greatest in the Gulf of Mexico since Hurricane Rita in 2005.
- With the exception of storm Kate in 1985, Hurricane Rafael was just the second significant storm to form in the Gulf of Mexico in November.
