Tuesday’s primary election saw Trump win the state with 83.5% of the vote, but he lost by 155,000 votes to Nikki Haley—who, well, isn’t really a candidate.
It’s important to take note of a warning sign when a contender who withdrew in March loses 16.5% of the primary vote in a swing state.
True enough, Trump leads handily in four swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina) according to the most recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey.
Indeed, his team did not put in much work in the most recent primary.
It’s still early in November, but according to one general election survey, he’s only just ahead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and President Biden has managed to eke out a lead in Michigan.
In order for Trump to secure a resounding victory on election day, his staff must decipher the tea leaves and realize that he still needs to win over a number of traditional Republicans and right-leaning independents who might still abstain from voting or even pick Biden.
He has been making progress in the appropriate way: Following threats by GOP dissidents to remove Speaker Mike Johnson over the House’s approval of a $95.3 billion aid package for Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine, Trump stood up for Johnson, referring to him as “a good person” and emphasizing that Republicans “have a majority of one” and that “it’s not like he can go and do whatever he wants to do.”
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Despite his reputation as a one-man show, this demonstrates that Trump is, at his core, a reasonable person who understands how the government operates and is in favor of standing with our allies.
It also demonstrates that when national security is at stake, he won’t back down from a challenge to the “establishment” by leaving Republican leaders hanging.
Another thing Trump can do to win over moderates is to let Biden’s embarrassing remarks make the press rather than making headlines of his own with controversial remarks.
It cannot be avoided: The Donald’s large personality frequently works to his advantage, until he gives the media fodder for remarks they can twist into absurdities (as evidenced by the fake “bloodbath” controversy last month).
He should be mindful that 15% of Republican supporters cited “his mouth” as their top worry over Trump.
Republicans began to turn against him because of his protracted focus on the “stolen” 2020 election; instead, Democrats’ growing “lawfare” persecutions—a sincere series of indignities—provided the impetus for him to advance toward the nomination.
He still needs to convince those who are still skeptical that he is essentially on the same side as average Republicans. This may be achieved by demonstrating that he is not aligned with the establishment or with the meaningless posturing of Matt Gaetzes and Marjorie Taylor Greenes, but rather with ordinary Republicans.
