A potentially catastrophic severe weather pattern is developing over Memorial Day weekend, endangering millions of people with strong tornadoes, strong winds, and large hail on Saturday in the Plains. On Sunday, the threat of severe weather will move eastward into the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi valleys.
“Violent to strong tornadoes” could occur on Saturday
As a storm system ejects from the Rockies and into the Plains, the most recent prediction models have shown a more dangerous scenario for the Central Plains late Saturday into Saturday night.
As of right now, the Storm Prediction Center of NOAA has categorized a large portion of southern Kansas and Oklahoma, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa, as well as Wichita, as Level 4 of 5 severe weather risk areas.
There will be calm conditions for most of Saturday morning and day, but late afternoon and evening is when supercell thunderstorms are expected to form.
As the storms move into an extremely wet and unstable environment in the evening, the SPC is warning that while there will initially be a large hail threat, including stones the size of softballs, there will also be an increased risk of tornadoes.
During its lunchtime forecast discussion on Friday, the SPC stated that “long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening.”
The SPC also issued a warning on Saturday night, stating that when the storms line up and move into eastern Kansas and western Missouri, there could be “extreme wind damage” in certain areas. Gusts were predicted to exceed 75 mph.
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Sunday might see a widespread outbreak of severe weather
Severe thunderstorms are predicted to travel northeast on Sunday, affecting the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi valleys.
Sunday could include showers and thunderstorms throughout the day that could affect events, in contrast to Saturday when development possibilities were at their highest in the evening.
More than 12 million people in places like St. Louis, Springfield, Illinois, and Louisville, Kentucky, are at an early Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe weather, according to the SPC.
Monday also applies to Indianapolis, where the venerable Indy 500 is set to take place Monday morning and where officials have already begun making plans in case of rain. There is a chance of strong tornadoes, wind gusts above 75 mph, and hail the size of a golf ball within the Level 3 risk zone.
However, another 27 million people, mostly in Chicago, Cincinnati, Nashville, Memphis, and Kansas City, are currently at risk of severe weather due to a Level 2 forecast.
Fortunately, by Sunday, a lot of travelers have already arrived at their destinations. On the other hand, drivers on Interstates 40, 70, 55, and 65 should closely monitor the forecast.
Read Also: Iowa Tornado Disaster: Multiple Fatalities and Injuries Confirmed
Memorial Day on Monday
While a significant spread of showers and thunderstorms is predicted for most of the eastern part of the country on the holiday itself, the likelihood of a severe weather outbreak is significantly lower than it was for the previous two days.
Any thunderstorm, no matter how mild on the surface, has the potential to produce catastrophic lightning and deluges of rain, disrupting events in big cities like New York City, Washington, D.C., and the area around Interstate 95.
The cooling benefits of the precipitation will not reach communities in the South where it does not rain; highs along the Interstate 10 corridor will typically range from the low to mid-90s.
The storm system’s intricate structure means that there is a good likelihood of rain continuing into Tuesday over the Eastern Seaboard.
