In a recent nationwide voter survey, President Biden is just ahead of former President Trump by a small margin. His lead increases somewhat when focusing on those who indicated they will certainly vote in November.
In a Marist/PBS NewsHour survey conducted on Monday, registered voters gave Biden a 51 percent to 48 percent edge over Trump; this represents a slight improvement over a poll conducted earlier this month that gave Biden a 50 percent to 48 percent lead.
When the poll’s respondents are limited to those who indicated they will undoubtedly cast ballots in November, Biden’s lead increases to 53 to 47 percent.
The two men are deadlocked at 49% of independent votes, with 2% indicating they were unsure.
Even after adding independent and third-party candidates like Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the poll, Biden continues to lead.
Biden leads Trump 43–38 with registered voters when those three candidates are taken into account, with Kennedy receiving 14% of the vote. Eight percent of Democrats, ten percent of Republicans, and twenty-seven percent of independents supported Kennedy.
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The survey was conducted from April 16–18, which coincided with the first week of Trump’s hush money trial in New York City, among 1,192 adults, including 1,047 registered voters. There is a 3.4 percentage point margin of error in the poll.
In recent weeks, Biden has gained ground in national surveys, matching Trump in an average of national polls from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill. The tight polling points to what strategists have long predicted will be a close election between Trump and Biden—a rerun of the contest that Biden prevailed in in 2020.
But Trump’s standing has improved in battleground state polling. According to Decision Desk HQ averages, Biden performs better in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania while Trump leads in Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
