The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued new winter outlooks on Thursday, predicting an unusually cold winter for the Upper Midwest. There is a good chance of weather that is warmer than typical, which might result in heavier snowfall in northern Illinois and northwest Indiana.
The El Niño/La Niña cycle, a naturally cyclical phenomena in the Pacific Ocean around the equator of either warmer or cooler than normal water, influences NOAA’s seasonal outlooks in part.
As we move from last year’s El Niño to the predicted La Niña, NOAA says we are still in a neutral condition. However, the rapid dropping of temperatures in that area of the ocean suggests that a La Niña may be approaching.
It is anticipated that La Niña will manifest itself within the following two months and last until at least February 2025.
The polar jet stream over the United States will move northward due to chilly waters in the Pacific during this winter’s La Niña event. This usually results in rainier weather in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest and drought in the southern United States.
Additionally, the jet stream’s position usually results in weather that is either normal or colder than average in northern regions of the United States and warmer than normal in the southern regions.
However, how likely is it that the Chicago region will see snow over the winter?
After examining La Niña occurrences in our region over the previous ten years, the First Alert Weather team discovered that snowfall throughout December and February actually averaged marginally less than usual.
In Chicago, the average winter snowfall from 1991 to 2020 was 29.6″; in La Niña, the average winter snowfall was 28.3″.
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Climate change could be one of the explanations.
Chicago is warming up fastest during the winter, with average temperatures currently 3.5 degrees higher than in 1990. This implies that even if La Niña increases precipitation during some winters, more of it might be falling as rain rather than snow.
Chicago now experiences appreciable snowfall on 27 days out of the year, compared to 32 days on average in the past. Mid-November saw the issuance of the last winter outlooks.
Winter Season | Snowfall (in inches) |
2011/2012 | 19.5 |
2017/2018 | 30.2 |
2020/2021 | 46.3 |
2021/2022 | 28.6 |
2022/2023 | 16.8 |
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