There may be one or possibly two lines of strong thunderstorms triggered by a cold front that passes over southern Michigan late on Thursday.
An area of potential severe weather across the southern portion of Lower Michigan, particularly southwest Lower Michigan, was identified late on Thursday by the Storm Prediction Center.
From Lansing, Jackson, Kalamazoo, and Benton Harbor to Flint and Ann Arbor, the southern portion of Michigan has the greatest overall risk of severe weather. There is a slight chance that Thursday’s strong storms will affect the whole of Lower Michigan. It would be extremely rare to have severe weather in the marginal risk area.
When the thunderstorms advance east and northeast toward southern Michigan, they will first form in Missouri and Illinois.
Since temperatures are at their highest and instability is at its peak in the afternoon and early evening, tornadic storms are likely to develop during these times. The chance of an isolated tornado on Thursday evening is limited to the extreme southwest corner.
The upcoming radar prediction will show you that strong storms are predicted to move through southern Michigan on Thursday night and into the following day.
It’s potential for isolated, severe thunderstorm gusts to reach Ann Arbor and Flint in the southern Lower Peninsula.
It would also be necessary to form hail tomorrow afternoon in the sweltering heat. Only a small portion of the far southwest corner is at risk of significant hail because of this early requirement for the hail to survive.
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To help you understand the time and position of the late-day Thursday storms, here is the radar forecast.
Three waves of thunderstorms are predicted for Michigan on Thursday. Thursday morning’s first round will see waning storms.
In the latter part of Thursday afternoon, there is a possibility that isolated strong storms from the second cycle will pass into Ann Arbor and Detroit.
The final set of storms is expected to arrive late on Thursday and early on Friday. There is a good likelihood that this final set of storms will be the heaviest and most catastrophic. The storms’ arrival at night may help us avoid damaging wind gusts and intense thunderstorms.
