Reversal of Fortune Trump's Political Landscape Shifts in Two Key States
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Reversal of Fortune: Trump’s Political Landscape Shifts in Two Key States

Less than five months before the presidential election, Donald Trump has lost his slight advantages in two important battleground states.

In November, the presumed Republican nominee for president will take on President Joe Biden. Based on polls conducted thus far, it appears that the 2020 White House rematch will be close, with the two candidates statistically tied or leading by very small margins in several surveys.

However, Trump is currently trailing Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin for the first time this election season, according to the VoteHub tracker, which compiles the averages of surveys from highly regarded pollsters awarded a rating of “A” or “B” in the previous 28 days.

According to the voting tracker, Biden lagged behind Trump in Michigan in March by -3.7 percentage points. However, the incumbent in the White House seized the initiative in May, claiming a 1 percentage point advantage over his Republican opponent, after narrowing the deficit to 0.7 percent in April.

As of June, this lead has shrunk to 0.8 percent, which is still rather small over Trump.

Trump won Michigan in 2016, but in 2020 Biden returned it to blue. In seven out of the last eight presidential elections, Democrats have won the state.

It seems like Wisconsin voters are no longer supporting Trump. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey conducted in late May among 4,962 registered voters in seven swing states revealed that Trump was only just ahead in the state by 47% to 46% of the total vote.

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However, VoteHub indicates that Biden is currently leading Trump in Wisconsin by 0.2 percent. Last week, Trump reportedly made disparaging remarks about Milwaukee, the largest city in Wisconsin, which drew outrage. Experts have speculated that the Republican’s prospects of winning the state may be impacted by his remarks.

In 2016, Trump pulled off an unexpected victory in Wisconsin, winning the state by less than 1%. With 49.4 percent of the vote to Trump’s 48.8 percent in 2020, Biden won Wisconsin. Wisconsin had produced seven Democratic presidential winners prior to 2016.

Because the Electoral College system allots each state a fixed number of votes based on population, battleground state polls are significant because the election will probably be decided by a small number of vital swing states.

It is not a given that a presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote would win; instead, the candidate must receive 270 electoral votes.

However, it is still too early to declare the outcome of the election with less than five months till voting day.

Before the general election on November 5, Biden and Trump are expected to participate in the first of two scheduled debates in Atlanta on June 27.


With more than two years of expertise in news and analysis, Eileen Stewart is a seasoned reporter. Eileen is a respected voice in this field, well-known for her sharp reporting and insightful analysis. Her writing covers a wide range of subjects, from politics to culture and more.