This week could see widespread impacts across the southern United States from two tropical storm systems that are developing in the Atlantic Ocean and the southern Gulf of Mexico. This might be the beginning of what is anticipated to be a “very active” Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.
There is a tropical storm watch in force for northeastern Mexico and South Texas. The first named storm of the hurricane season, Tropical Storm Alberto, is predicted to hit Texas and Louisiana in the next 48 hours, bringing with it up to 15 inches of catastrophic flooding.
As to the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane Center, a “large disturbance is producing heavy rains and gusty winds in southern Mexico, Central America, and surrounding waters,” the branch posted on X on Monday.
“Several days of heavy rainfall are expected and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.”
The storm was classified as a Potential Tropical Cyclone One by the National Hurricane Center on Monday afternoon. In the Bay of Campeche, winds of 40 mph were being produced by the low pressure system.
By midweek, a tropical depression is predicted to emerge and is anticipated to make landfall on Mexico’s northern coast by Thursday.
The National Weather Service advised on Monday afternoon that, “All eyes are on Potential Tropical Cyclone One! Regardless of formation, heavy to excessive rainfall will be possible for portions of the Western Gulf Coast over the next several days.”
The National Weather Service stated in a post on X, “There is now a high, 70%, probability of formation of a tropical depression/storm in the Bay of Campeche. Regardless of tropical development, periods of heavy rainfall are expected this week in southeast Texas, especially near and along the coast.”
It is “forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday,” the National Hurricane Center said. This week, another storm is developing in the Atlantic Ocean, east of the Bahamas.
“This appears to be a quick-moving and compact low-pressure area that will be moving westward into northeastern Florida or perhaps as far north as southeastern Georgia on Thursday,” as per the AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
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Within the next seven days, there is a 30% possibility that the storm in the Atlantic may turn into a tropical depression.
NWS meteorologists stated that, “While the exact details still remain very uncertain due to differences in guidance, the potential for heavy downpours for the middle to the end of the week will lead to the potential for localized flooding concerns to return to portions of South Florida.”
The Atlantic hurricane season this year officially began on June 1 and is expected to be among the busiest on record, based on AccuWeather’s forecast. This week’s tropical storms are only the beginning of the season.
According to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva, “the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts.”
“There is a 10-15% chance of 30 or more storms this year,” he continued. “All indications are pointing toward a very active Atlantic Hurricane season in 2024.”
